Architecture Billings Stay Below 50 While August Starts Drop: What Mixed U.S. Signals Mean for Curtain Wall Buyers
Two data releases in late September and early October gave North American facade buyers a mixed read on where commercial demand is heading. Architecture firm billings remained in contraction in August, while construction starts fell sharply from July's level, even as year-to-date totals stay well above last year.
The numbers point in different directions, and understanding why helps with project timing and procurement planning.
What the billings data says
The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI), released on 23 September, came in at 47.2 for August. A reading below 50 means more firms reported falling billings than rising ones, and the index has been below 50 since March 2023, according to a recap from the Associated General Contractors (AGC). Since the ABI tracks design work in progress, it is widely watched as a leading indicator of future nonresidential construction activity.
Within the August release:
Fewer firms reported declines than in July, though most still described weak conditions.
Inquiries into new projects grew only modestly, while the value of newly signed design contracts continued to fall.
Regionally, the Midwest showed modest growth for the first time in nearly a year, billings in the West were essentially flat, and the Northeast softened to its lowest level since 2020.
By sector, commercial and industrial billings ticked up slightly. Institutional and multifamily conditions stayed soft.
The share of firms expecting billings declines rose from 21 percent to 29 percent over the year.
What the starts data says
Dodge Construction Network's August report, covered in trade press on 1 October, showed total construction starts falling 24.8 percent for the month. Nonresidential starts dropped 32 percent for the month, with commercial down 37.6 percent and institutional down 18.1 percent. Offices and data centers fell 31.3 percent, while hotels and retail rose. Residential starts slipped 5.2 percent, with multifamily down 13.5 percent.
Dodge attributes the decline mainly to normalization after a spike in July. Its director of economic research, Sarah Martin, put it this way: "After a pop in activity last month, construction starts largely normalized throughout August." The longer view is stronger: through August, total starts were up 15.2 percent year to date and nonresidential starts were up 23.4 percent. Over the 12 months ending in August, nonresidential starts were up 17.9 percent against the prior 12 months.
Different trackers do not always agree on month-to-month swings. ConstructConnect, for example, reported nonresidential starts up 26 percent year to date through August and described August's total of $99.0 billion as the second-highest reading on record, while Dodge's measure fell sharply from July. Both point to the same underlying story: growth has been concentrated in a narrow set of project types. ConstructConnect noted that the majority of this year's increase has come from offices including data centers, and Dodge said data center, semiconductor, and energy construction are still driving growth while several other sectors remain subdued, alongside labor shortages and rising material prices.
How to read the mix
Strong year-to-date starts and weak design billings can both be true. Starts reflect projects that are already funded and moving, often large, specialized builds. Billings reflect the broader pipeline of earlier-stage design work, which is thinner in most building types outside those growth sectors. For curtain wall suppliers and buyers, that suggests demand is uneven by project type and region rather than uniformly strong or weak.
What this means for buyers and specifiers
Project type shapes market conditions. Data center and mission-critical projects compete for facade capacity differently than speculative office or institutional work.
Early engagement still pays off. With fewer new design contracts being signed, projects that do move forward have more room to settle facade systems, performance requirements, and testing early rather than during value engineering.
Watch quote validity. Dodge points to accelerating material prices and labor shortages. Ask suppliers how long pricing holds and what the escalation terms are.
Regional differences matter. The Northeast's billings low and the Midwest's modest recovery suggest local market conditions can diverge from national headlines.
Treat single-month starts figures with care. Month-to-month starts data is volatile, and the trailing 12-month comparison is a steadier guide.
Frequently asked questions
Does a sub-50 billings index mean facade projects are being cancelled?
Not necessarily. It means fewer firms are reporting growth in billings than decline, which affects the pipeline of future projects rather than those already under construction.
Why do different data providers show different starts trends?
Providers measure project starts using different methods and timing. Comparing year-to-date or 12-month figures across sources is more reliable than comparing single months.
Billings and starts data rarely move in lockstep, and the gap between them is itself useful information for planning. For buyers, the practical takeaway is to match procurement timing to the specific sector and region of each project rather than to national averages.
FOWALL will continue tracking market and regulatory developments across North American markets and reporting on what they mean for curtain wall specification and sourcing.
